USDA lowers 2024-25 sugar import forecast as production hits record high 

USA – The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) has reduced its 2024-25 sugar import forecast in its latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, more than offsetting lower deliveries and increased production. 

For the 2024-25 season, US sugar production is projected to reach a record 9,408,000 short tons, raw value, an increase of 38,000 tons from February and 97,000 tons higher than 2023-24. 

Beet sugar production is forecast at 5,389,000 tons, up 35,980 tons, due to improved sucrose recovery from sliced beets.  

The USDA noted that earlier production challenges in the Pacific Northwest have been resolved, and processors in the Red River Valley are optimistic about beet storage conditions for the remainder of the season. 

Cane sugar production is projected at 4,019,000 tons, up 1,916 tons from February. This includes a 28,679-ton increase in Louisiana, which offsets a 26,763-ton decline in Florida, where processors reported lower sugarcane yields. 

US sugar imports are now forecast at 2,779,000 tons, down 113,597 tons from February. The decline is primarily due to lower imports from Mexico, which are projected at 497,000 tons, down 124,000 tons based on the US Department of Commerce’s adjustment to Mexico’s export limit under the suspension agreements. 

However, high-tier imports are forecast at 550,000 tons, up 10,588 tons, reflecting higher-than-expected actual entries. 

With beginning stocks unchanged, the total US sugar supply for 2024-25 is now forecast at 14,317,000 tons, down 75,701 tons from February. This decrease is attributed to lower imports outweighing production gains. 

US sugar deliveries for human consumption are estimated at 12,240,000 tons, down 35,000 tons from February and 159,000 tons (1.3%) lower than 2023-24, reflecting recent lower-than-expected period deliveries. 

Total sugar use is projected at 12,445,000 tons, down 35,000 tons, with exports and “other” deliveries unchanged from February. 

US ending stocks for 2024-25 are now estimated at 1,872,000 tons, down 40,701 tons from February and 257,000 tons (12%) lower than 2023-24. 

Forecast in Mexico 

In Mexico, 2024-25 sugar production is forecast at 4,859,000 tonnes, unchanged from February but up 155,000 tonnes year-over-year. Imports are projected at 189,000 tonnes, an increase of 64,000 tonnes. 

Mexico’s sugar exports are forecast at 957,021 tonnes, up 100,095 tonnes from February.  

However, exports under license to the US have been reduced by 106,282 tonnes to 425,127 tonnes, while exports to other destinations increased by 206,377 tonnes to 531,894 tonnes. 

Domestic sugar use in Mexico is projected at 4,553,000 tonnes, including 4,198,000 tonnes for human consumption, down 30,000 tonnes from February. 

Ending stocks in Mexico are estimated at 956,000 tonnes, down 6,000 tonnes from February and 462,000 tonnes (37%) lower than 2023-24. 

The USDA made no revisions to its 2023-24 sugar estimates for Mexico. 

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