USDA raises 2024-25 US sugar stocks-to-use forecast to 13.5% 

USA – The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) has increased its forecast for the 2024-25 US sugar ending stocks-to-use ratio to 13.5 percent, up from 11.7 percent in November, according to its latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report.  

The adjustment comes as lower beginning stocks and domestic beet sugar production are offset by higher imports from Mexico and high-tier imports. 

Under the terms of the US-Mexico agreements suspending countervailing duties on Mexican sugar, the USDA is required to balance for a 13.5 percent ending stocks-to-use ratio in December. 

The USDA estimates beginning stocks for 2024-25 at 2,099,000 short tons, raw value, representing a 2.9 percent decline from November’s forecast but a 14 percent increase compared to 2023-24.  

Domestic sugar production for 2024-25 is forecast at 9,226,000 tons, a 0.5 percent drop from November’s estimate.  

Beet sugar production is projected at 5,160,000 tons, down 1 percent from November, attributed to reduced sugar extraction from sugar beet molasses, while cane sugar remains unchanged at 4,066,000 tons. 

Imports play a significant role in the revised forecast, with total imports for 2024-25 raised to 2,926,000 tons, up 13 percent from November but down 23 percent compared to the 2023-24 levels.  

Imports from Mexico are forecast at 620,925 tons, a 57 percent increase from November and a 19 percent rise from 2023-24. This increase aligns with stipulations under the countervailing duty suspension agreement managed by the Department of Commerce. 

High-tier imports for 2024-25 are projected at 476,493 tons, a 33 percent increase from November but a significant 61 percent decrease compared to the record 1,231,000 tons recorded in 2023-24. 

Total sugar supply for 2024-25 is forecast at 14,251,000 tons, up 1.7 percent from November but down 5 percent year-over-year.  

Ending stocks for 2024-25 are projected at 1,696,000 tons, reflecting a 16 percent increase from November’s forecast but a 19% decline from 2023-24. 

Meanwhile, adjustments for 2023-24 are mostly minor.  

Production is estimated at 9,305,000 tons, down 63,000 tons from November, while imports are revised upward to 3,811,000 tons.  

The ending stocks-to-use ratio for 2023-24 has been adjusted to 16.3 percent, down from 16.9 percent in November but above the 14.3 percent ratio recorded in 2022-23. 

The USDA made no changes to Mexico’s sugar supply and use forecasts for 2024-25, maintaining export projections at 1,006,000 tons, with adjustments balancing exports under license to the US and other countries. 

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