USDA report reveals ongoing challenges in poultry production
USA – The USDA’s latest January 2025 report highlights a significant drop in broiler production, with November 2024 output reaching 3.65 billion pounds, a 16.5% decrease from October and a 4.4% decline from the previous year.
The sharp decline in production was partly due to two fewer slaughter days in November, as well as a slight drop in average live weights from 6.7 pounds to 6.6 pounds.
Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) continues to affect poultry operations, with December alone seeing the loss of 18 million birds, including 2.2 million broilers.
Looking ahead to 2025, the USDA forecasts a reduction in broiler production, with the first quarter projected at 11.7 billion pounds, below previous estimates.
Egg production also took a hit in late 2024, with November output dropping to 639.9 million dozen, down 3.9% year-over-year, largely due to lower inventories and HPAI-related losses.
The egg industry faced a 3.1% decline in layer inventory in November, with 311.3 million birds, nearly 17 million fewer than the five-year average.
HPAI led to the culling of 38.4 million table egg layers in 2024, including 13.6 million in December, marking the largest single-month loss.
Egg production for 2025 is expected to reach 7.82 billion dozen, up by 1.2% from 2024 but still 3.9% below pre-HPAI levels in 2021.
Wholesale egg prices for December 2024 averaged US$4.92 per dozen, with 2025 prices projected to stabilize around US$2.94 per dozen.
Turkey production in 2024 also struggled, with November output declining 12.3% compared to the previous year, totaling 394 million pounds.
HPAI caused the loss of 1.48 million turkeys in December, contributing to an annual loss of 3.63 million birds, the second-highest total since the outbreak began in 2022.
The turkey industry is expected to produce 5.1 billion pounds in 2025, a slight decrease from 2024, with exports continuing to face challenges.
Broiler exports performed relatively well, with November 2024 shipments increasing by 5.7% year-over-year, totaling 602.7 million pounds.
Top export markets for broilers include Mexico, which received 22% of shipments, and Taiwan, accounting for 9% of total exports.
Pricing trends for poultry products indicate that broiler prices are expected to rise to US$1.32 per pound in Q1 2025, while eggs are projected to average US$2.94 per dozen.
Turkey prices are forecast to remain steady, with the wholesale price for frozen whole turkeys at US$0.99 per pound in 2025.
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