GLOBAL— Post revises estimates of the Vietnam’s marketing year 2021/2022 (MY 2021/22) spring crop harvest area and production down to 3,000 thousand hectares (THA) and 20.10 million metric tons (MMT) due to abnormally cold weather, unseasonal rains and uneven rain distribution.
Due to these factors, Post also revises MY 2021/22 paddy harvest area and production forecast down to 7,285 THA and 43.31 MMT.
Water shortages in key producing areas during the early planting season has also affected Pakistan’s rice harvest. The production forecast for 2022/23 is reduced from 9.0 to 8.6 MMT.
Additionally, due to hot and dry conditions during seeding/transplanting, Pakistan’s MY 2022/23 rice production forecast is reduced from 9.0 to 8.6 MMT.
Brazilian rice too suffered the same fate and Post revised Brazil’s estimated rice harvest area to 1.62 million hectares for MY 2021/22 and 1.6 million hectares for MY 2022/23, a historic low for Brazil, because of a decrease in rainfed rice and high input costs.
Pakistani wheat output was also adversely impacted by early season fertilizer shortages. Based on the Government of Pakistan’s (GOP) first official assessment, the MY 2022/23 wheat production forecast remains unchanged at 26.4 million metric tons (MMT), four percent less than last year.
Despite global diminishing uncertainty over the availability of fertilizers, Post increased its estimate for Brazilian corn production in MY 20221/22 by 1 million tons from the previous forecast and also raised its (MY) 2022/23 forecast to 120 million metric tons (MMT) based on strong demand and increased prices in the domestic and international markets.
On the rise in Brazilian production and strong international demand, Post projected a 2.2 percent increase from its previous projection in corn exports for MY 2021/22 to 44.5 MMT, and 46.5 MMT for MY 2022/23.
Post increased Brazil’s MY 2022/23 rice export forecast to 700,000 MT based on the high demand for rice in the international market and growing interest of farmers in exporting.
Consumption of grains expected to maintain an uptrend
Post upholds its estimate of Vietnam’s MY 2021/22 rice consumption at 21.50 MMT. Industry traders note that, as rice is a staple food, Vietnamese consumption remains steady. Post revises forecast of the MY 2022/23 consumption up to 21.60 MMT on par with population growth.
Post maintained its 2022/23 Brazilian domestic corn consumption at 75 MMT, representing a 2.7 percent increase on the current season estimate of 73 MMT. The forecast is in line with the average ten-year annual growth and based on the expectation of continued expansion of Brazil’s livestock and poultry industries.
Owing to the expanding livestock and poultry industries, Post maintains Brazilian corn consumption For MY 2021/22 at 73 MMT, almost four percent higher than the previous marketing year.
Post maintained Brazil’s MY 2022/23 wheat consumption forecast at 12 MMT, based on the notion that consumption in Brazil will remain on the uptrend, albeit at a slower pace, given the high prices of the commodity to end consumers.
However, Post revised down its estimate for MY 2021/22 wheat consumption to 11.8 MMT, a 3 percent decrease from the previous estimate.
This revision is based on the high prices of wheat products to end consumers and a spike in inflation in Brazil, which has taken a toll on Brazilian households.
The sharp increase in inflation in Brazil has been slowing down the purchases of essential food items by lower-income families. This led Post to decrease its rice consumption forecast for MY 2022/23 by 1.3 percent from the previous forecast to 7.3 MMT of milled rice equivalent.
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