Vietnam’s coffee exports projected to hit record US$8B amid price surge
Rising global coffee prices and supply constraints position Vietnam’s coffee industry for unprecedented export revenue growth in 2025.
VIETNAM – The Vietnam Coffee Cocoa Association (VICOFA) has projected that if current price trends persist, the country’s coffee exports could reach a record-breaking US$8 billion in 2025, driven by a surge in global coffee prices, despite a decline in export volume.
According to the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), coffee prices are expected to rise by 38.8% in 2024 compared to the previous year due to declining production.
Additionally, the Department of Import-Export under the Ministry of Industry and Trade anticipates that the La Niña weather pattern could lead to frost in Brazil, reducing the 2025-2026 crop output to a three-year low. This presents a significant opportunity for Vietnam to expand its global market share.
Data from the Vietnam Customs Department indicates that from January 1 to March 15, 2025, Vietnam exported over 400,000 tons of coffee, generating US$2.28 billion in revenue. Although this represents an 18% decline in volume from the same period in 2024, the value of exports surged by 41% due to a sharp increase in global coffee prices.
The average export price of Vietnamese coffee has risen by 73% year-on-year, reaching US$5,614 per ton in the first quarter of 2025. If this price trajectory continues, Vietnam’s coffee industry could achieve its highest-ever export earnings by year-end.
Deputy Minister of Agriculture and Rural Development Phung Duc Tien emphasized the sector’s growth potential, noting that if current trends hold, coffee export revenue could surpass US$6 billion in 2025.
He highlighted the importance of investing in processing technology, expanding international markets, and adapting to global market fluctuations.
Germany remains Vietnam’s top coffee export destination, followed closely by Italy, Japan, the United States, and Spain.
To sustain long-term growth, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development is working with VICOFA and industry stakeholders to implement strategies aimed at enhancing the value and competitiveness of Vietnamese coffee.
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