World grain production to increase 2% with more wheat harvests – IGC

WORLD – World total grains production in 2019/20 is projected to climb by 2% to 2.178 billion tonnes attributed to bigger harvests of wheat and barley, according to International Grains Council’s (IGC) Grain Market report.

According to IGC, despite increased output, overall availabilities will edge only slightly higher owing to the smallest opening stocks in three seasons.

Consumption is projected to hit a record high at 2.201 billion tonnes as uses in food, feed and industrial applications are expected to increase.

“Amid record demand and only a minor supply expansion, a third successive depletion of global stocks is predicted, to a five-year low of 588 million tonnes,” IGC said.

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“Little change in trade is projected as larger wheat shipments are balanced by a fall for maize.”

Total wheat and coarse grains production in 2018/19 are estimated at 2.128 billion tonnes while grain stocks are predicted to have fallen due to falls for maize, wheat and barley.

Larger harvests are expected in wheat, up 26 million tonnes; corn, up 6 million tonnes and barley, up 8 million tonnes.

However, with opening stocks the smallest in three seasons, availabilities will be only slightly higher.

Grains trade is expected to match the season before, as the tenth consecutive rise for maize compensates for smaller shipments of wheat, barley and sorghum.

2018/19 world soyabean output is forecast at a record of 362 million tonnes, up 6%, stemming from a rebound in Argentina.

Global trade was lower impacted by lower China shipments as a result of a trade standoff.

The US soybean harvest in 2019/20 is predicted lower despite expected gains in feed uptake and rising use in applications, offset by policy and demand-side uncertainties in China.

Global rice production in 2018/19 is forecast to be up by 1% y/y, at a record of 500 million tonnes, including bigger harvests in key exporters and sub-Saharan Africa.

“Consumption could reach a new high amid ample availabilities and rising populations, while aggregate stocks may expand on gains in India and China,” said IGC.

“World output in 2019/20 is tentatively seen at a peak of 505 million tonnes as acreage expansion in some Asian producers more than offsets falls in China and the Americas.

“Amid plentiful supplies, growth in total use and inventories is expected, with trade in 2020 potentially up on demand from buyers in Africa.”

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